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Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-07T16:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16214/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T00:23Z (-9.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note: 
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2020]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
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Most pr. speed = 1383.0 km/s 
Upgraded EAMv3 output:
u_r =      796.569
Acceleration:     -0.722209
Duration in seconds:        201573.18
Duration in days:        2.3330229
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Acceleration of the CME:  -0.72 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  651.0 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/12/2020 Time: 00:23 UT
Lead Time: 42.23 hour(s)
Difference: 1.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2020-12-08T07:15Z
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